The Election and Commercial Real Estate

Written by: Robert Bach Director of Research - Americas | Newmark Knight Frank

The surprise election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States is likely to have far-reaching impacts on the economy, capital markets and, by extension, commercial real estate. The nature of these impacts is more opaque than in most election cycles, because policy discussions took a back seat to personalities during the candidates’ debates and speeches. Nevertheless, we can make some early observations based on a short policy statement titled “Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter,” written by three campaign advisors: investor Wilbur Ross, businessman Andy Puzder and economist Peter Navarro. The authors anticipate that the policies proposed in the statement will increase GDP from the 2.1% annualized rate that has prevailed in the current expansion to the range of 3.5% to 4.0%, although mainstream economists question this.

Here, very briefly, is an outline of the president-elect’s preliminary economic proposals and some commentary on the potential benefits and risks for the economy and, where applicable, commercial real estate:

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